IB skill practice

Use Bayes theorem and conditional probability

Apply conditional probability and Bayes theorem in structured probability contexts.

Paper 1, Paper 2 5 marks Difficulty 3

Use Bayes theorem and conditional probability - Bayes theorem and posterior probability item

Case B3. In weather model, \(P(storm)=0.28\), \(P(warning issued|storm)=0.88\), and \(P(warning issued|not storm)=0.08\). Calculate \(P(storm\mid warning issued)\), the numerical probability for storm day, and select the interpretation.

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