IB skill practice

Use Bayes theorem in decision contexts

Use prior probabilities and likelihoods to calculate posterior probabilities.

Paper 1, Paper 2 5 marks Difficulty 4

Use Bayes theorem in decision contexts - context restriction

In a eco-tour operator screening model, \(P(A)=0.18\), \(P(+|A)=0.76\), and \(P(+|A')=0.12\). Find \(P(A|+)\). Enter the requested value and choose the interpretation that matches the result.

Worked practice: result and interpretation

Calculate the requested result first, then choose the interpretation that follows from it.