IB skill practice

Use Bayes theorem in decision contexts

Use prior probabilities and likelihoods to calculate posterior probabilities.

Paper 1, Paper 2 5 marks Difficulty 5

Use Bayes theorem in decision contexts - context restriction

In a transport depot screening model, \(P(A)=0.18\), \(P(+|A)=0.78\), and \(P(+|A')=0.12\). Find \(P(A|+)\). This version asks for the same mathematical quantity after confirming the method from the context. Enter the requested value and choose the interpretation that matches the result.

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